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IOOS Modeling & Analysis Subsystem
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| Conceptually, the IOOS consists of 3 efficiently linked subsystems: Observing System(in situ measurements, remote sensing, and data telemetry), a Data Management and Communications(DMAC) subsystem and a Data Analysis and Modeling (DAM) subsystem |
The objectives of the modeling and analysis subsystem are to (1) improve, develop, test, and validate operational models; (2) produce accurate estimates of current states of marine systems (e.g., estimates of the distributions of core variables); (3) develop data assimilating techniques to initialize and update models for more accurate forecasts of state changes; and (4) optimize the observing subsystem (e.g., observing system simulation experiments).
Models include simple statistical relationships (e.g. rules of thumb, dose-response relationships, multiple and multivariate regression models), more sophisticated statistical constructs (e.g. state space models such as Geographic Information Systems [GIS], virtual population analyses, observation network performance analysis), dynamical models based on first principles (e.g. storm surge models, numerical ecosystem models in both Lagrangian and Eulerian frames of reference), or coupled models of the biological and non-biological components of the marine ecosystem (e.g. coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-sediment-biogeochemistry and ecosystem models).
Operational models (1) provide outputs at rates and in forms specified by decision makers and other user groups; (2) are well documented (detailed descriptions of underlying concepts, equations, simplifying assumptions, inputs and outputs are available); (3) incorporate uncertainty into models for more useful, probabilistic predictions; (4) quantify differences between model predictions and observations; and (5) are operated by responsible organizations that ensure the quality and continuity of model predictions.
An Example: Forecasting Coastal Inundation 
To the right is a schematic for systems of coupled atmosphere-ocean-coastal drainage basin models for surge forecasts where forecasts include both the run up (spatial and temporal extent of flooding) and impact of subsequent runoff on coastal circulation. Such models will be expanded to include the impacts of subsequent runoff events on water quality and living marine resources.
Surge over-topping a coastal barrier
IOOS Community Modeling Workshop
Ocean.US has established a Modeling and Analysis Steering Team (MAST) to help guide the development of modeling activities in support of the goals of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), the U.S. contribution to the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and to the oceans-and-coasts component of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The MAST has now convened two workshops on community modeling assembling a broad spectrum of 50-60 experts who use model-based products or are engaged in modeling oceanic and coastal systems for both research and operational applications.